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Best Housing Markets

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Q1 2009 Best Housing Markets in the US

We can sort out the Q1 2009 best housing markets based on the constant-quality indices that were developed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) using both single-family housing sales transactions and appraisal data.

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These constant quality indices are considerably better in tracking changes in prices through time than median prices, since the latter do not control for changes in the quality mix of the sales transaction sample from one period to the other in terms of high-quality/high-priced versus low-quality/low-priced houses involved in these transactions.


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Of course, the phrase "best housing markets" should be interpreted with extreme caution under the current circumstances of a deteriorating national economy and the great uncertainty that goes with it in terms of what comes next. Within this context, there is no guarantee that the markets that registered housing price increases in the first quarter of 2009, have not registered price declines in the second quarter of 2009. Similar uncertainty clouds the future of these markets in the second half of 2009.

With all these reservations in mind, based on the FHFA constant-quality housing price indices for 384 metropolitan statistical areas in the United States, the Q1 2009 best housing markets that registered the highest price gains were Elmira, NY, College Station-Bryan, TX, Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL, San Angelo, TX, and Victoria, TX, which experienced housing price increases of 9.3%, 5.6%, 5.4%, 4.8% and 4.3%, respectively. It is interesting to note that three of the five top ranked metropolitan areas are located in Texas.

In terms of the five worst performing housing markets on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2009, it is interesting to note that four of them are located in California, indicating how hard this state has been hit. More specifically, the five housing markets that registered the worst price performance were Vallejo-Fairfield, CA, Modesto, CA, Las Vegas-Paradise, NV, Stockton, CA, and Merced, CA, which experienced annual house price declines of 29.2%, 29.4%, 29.5%, 31.2%, and 37.8%, respectively.

The table below presents the 50 metropolitan markets that registered the highest housing annual price increases in the first quarter of 2009.



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