Determining best apartment markets in the midst of the current crisis is surely quite of a challenge, given the uncertainty in the economy and the job market. Whatever methodology is used based on any current indicator, can be questioned on the basis of the uncertainty on the demand side.
For the purpose of this writing we will use as basic criterion the prevailing vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2009 as was estimated by the REALTORS Commercial Alliance and REALTOR Research. We warn though our readers that this is a very simplistic approach for determining best apartment markets because it ignores differences new supply that maybe potentially coming out in the market in the next 12-24 months and potential declines in apartment rental demand. The combination of these two dynamics could literally turn a low vacancy rate market today to a high vacancy rate market in the next 12 months.
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The ideal way to determine best apartment markets from a real estate investing point of view is not the level of the prevailing vacancy rate today but the most likely rent growth rates over the years ahead. However, assuming that all else are equal across markets in terms of supply and demand prospects (which are not) then apartment markets with the lowest vacancy rates are more likely to register higher rent growth rates.
According to estimates of apartment vacancy rates for the second quarter of 2009 by REALTORS Commercial Alliance and REALTOR Research, the Northern New Jersey apartment market had the lowest vacancy rate of 4.4%. Also Washington, DC, Columbus, Baltimore, Boston, San Jose, San Diego, and Minneapolis had vacancy rates ranging between 5.3% and 6%. It should be noted that REALTORS Commercial Alliance and REALTOR Research report a national apartment vacancy rate of 6.8% for the second quarter of 2009.
Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Tucson, Jacksonville, Phoenix are reported as the apartment markets with the highest vacancy rates exceeding 10% and ranging from 10.1% in Orlando to 13.3% in Phoenix.