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Best Housing Markets

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The Best Housing Markets in the 4th Quarter of 2006

Real Estate Investment Mathematics!
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Internal Rate of Return(IRR)
The 3 Formulas for Modified IRR (MIRR)/Financial Management Rate of Return (FMRR)
Potential Gross Income Multiplier (PGIM)
Potential Gross Income
Effective Gross Income Multiplier
Effective Gross Income
Net Income Multiplier
Net Operating Income
Overall Capitalization Rate/Income Return
Capitalization Factor
Band-of-Investment Formula for Estimating a Market/Required Capitalization Rate
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Appreciation Return
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Return on Total Capital (ROR)
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Before Tax Equity Cash Flow (BTECF)
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Loan Amount
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Mortgage Constant
Payback Period
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After Tax Cash Flow (ATCF)
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One-Period IRR
Income Tax Payment in Association with Income Producing Property
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Formula for Cash Flow for Last Period of Analysis
Future Resale Price
Annual Rental Income of Occupied Multi-Tenant Property
Multi-Period Lease Rate Growth Formula with Intertemporally Variable CPI Forecast
Multi-period Lease Rate Growth Formula with Constant CPI Forecast
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Profitability Index

The four best housing markets, based on price increases reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHEO) for the last quarter of 2006, include
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Anderson, IN, Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA, Lima, OH, and Savannah, GA, which registered housing price increases between 4.5% and 5.5%. Check the table below to see the twenty best housing markets along with the respective housing price increases in the last quarter of 2006, in 2006 and in the last five years ending in the 4th quarter of 2006.

The Housing Price Index (HPI)published by OFHEO is a broad measure of the movement of single-family housing prices, which, because of the breadth of the sample it is based on, it provides more information than is available in other house price indexes. As such, the HPI serves as a timely, accurate indicator of house price trends at various geographic levels, from the national level to the metropolitan area level. Check this link for more detailed information about the index.

Besides getting a feel of the best housing markets in the 4th quarter of 2006, it is intersting to take a look at the markets that exhibited the worst performance during that period. A second table below lists the twenty worst housing markets (among the 282 metropolitan markets covered by OFEHO) based again on price changes during the last quarter of 2006. As this table indicates, the four worst markets were Battle Creek, MI,Yuba City, CA, Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin, FL, and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA, where single-family house prices declined by as much as 2.6-3.7%.

Twenty Best Housing Markets Based on Price Trends in 4th Qrtr of 2006

Metropolitan Statistical Area

Rank*

4th Qrtr 2006

2006

5-Yr.

Anderson, IN

1

5.5

-2.6

8.1

Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA

2

5.2

10.2

35.9

Lima, OH

3

5.1

2.3

22.1

Savannah, GA

4

4.5

12.0

60.0

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC

5

4.4

6.0

20.2

Provo-Orem, UT

6

4.2

19.9

38.6

Florence, SC

7

4.1

7.8

26.1

Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX

8

4.0

9.9

30.1

Ogden-Clearfield, UT

9

3.8

15.3

30.5

Wenatchee, WA

10

3.5

20.9

61.9

Salt Lake City, UT

11

3.3

19.8

49.0

Kankakee-Bradley, IL

12

3.2

8.4

36.7

Prescott, AZ

13

3.2

11.5

98.4

Fayetteville, NC

14

3.2

9.8

28.0

Greeley, CO

15

3.2

1.3

15.1

Monroe, LA

16

3.2

6.4

25.5

Billings, MT

17

3.0

7.6

49.8

Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA

18

3.0

16.2

73.5

Coeur d'Alene, ID

19

3.0

10.5

90.5

Columbia, SC

20

2.9

6.4

29.2

 

 

 

 

 

Twenty Worst Housing Markets Based on Price Trends in 4th Qrtr of 2006

Fort Collins-Loveland, CO

263

-1.2

0.9

17.1

Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA

264

-1.2

-2.4

88.7

Topeka, KS

265

-1.3

3.1

24.7

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

266

-1.3

1.9

69.7

Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA

267

-1.4

0.8

59.7

San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA

268

-1.7

-2.6

78.9

Macon, GA

269

-1.8

2.4

18.9

Kokomo, IN

270

-1.9

-5.3

6.2

Sioux City, IA-NE-SD

271

-2.0

1.7

13.0

Honolulu, HI

272

-2.0

7.5

101.1

Jackson, MI

273

-2.1

-3.9

16.4

Naples-Marco Island, FL

274

-2.1

7.9

127.7

Merced, CA

275

-2.1

1.6

115.2

Ames, IA

276

-2.3

-2.2

14.9

Punta Gorda, FL

277

-2.4

2.3

107.6

Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA

278

-2.4

-2.0

64.3

Battle Creek, MI

279

-2.6

-0.2

17.7

Yuba City, CA

280

-2.7

-2.2

111.1

Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin, FL

281

-2.8

1.5

103.6

Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA

282

-3.7

-4.2

93.6

 

 

 

 

 

* Rank based on percent house price growth in the the 4th Quarter of 2006

 

 

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFEHO)

 

 

 

 

See Changes in Housing Prices for all 282 Metropolitan Markets Here

Return from Best Housing Markets 2006 to Market Watch