Global Market Trends in July 2009
According to JLL's assessment of basic economic indicators, the general trend in US, UK, and France is that recession is slowing, while in Germany and Japan recessionary trends continue without any clear signs that they are slowing down. In particular, in the US, the indicators with improving trends include retail trade, which increased by 0.6% in June driven by increased car sales and increased gas-station receipts, and rising Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).
In the UK, the improving indicators reported by JLL include consumer confidence, which increased 3.9% month-over-month, retail sales which increased 0.6% month-over-month, and rising Manufacturing PMI. The worsening UK indicators include the quarterly GDP which declined 2.4% (revised downwards from an earlier estimate of 1.9%), employment that declined 1.5% year-over-year, housing starts that dropped 17.6% year-over-year, and stock market performance, which was negative at 3.8% in June 2009. As was the case for the UK,in Germany the improving indicators include consumer confidence, retail sales and Manufacturing PMI. However, Germany along with Japan registered the worst quarterly GDP decline of 3.8% among the seven economies presented in the report. In France, the worsening indicators include the quarterly GDP which was down 1.3%, employment which was down 2.3% year-over-year, stock market performance in June which was negative 4.2%, and REIT market local performance which was negative 5% in June. The improving indicators include consumer confidence and the Manufacturing PMI. There was also a minimal increase in monthly retail sales. The JLL report indicates also that investment transactions across the globe are beginning to rise from a historic low and that in markets that experienced value declines, bidders are emerging for Class A well-leased properties that are occupied by high-quality tenants offering long-term cash flow security. You can read the full report here.
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