The December 2010 housing market forecast published by the US Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts that US home sales will register a significant drop in the fourth quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.
In particular, it is predicted that in the fourth quarter of 2010, total home sales (including both new and existing homes) will register a year-over-year drop of 25%, while sales of new homes are predicted to decline by less but still at the non-negligible rate of 15% compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 sales.
The December 2010 MBA housing forecast predicts also that median prices for all homes (new and existing), contrary to what happened in the first three quarters of 2010, will register a year-over-year decline of 1.5% in the fourth quarter, while median prices of new homes are expected to register a larger year-over-year drop of 2.6%. The FHFA US house price index is also predicted to register a yearly decrease of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Mortgage originations for 1-4 family units are predicted to register a decrease of 24% compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. The biggest decrease in mortgage originations is predicted to take place in home purchase (as opposed to refinance) mortgages and is estimated to amount to a 43% year-over-year drop.
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