Housing Market Forecasts - Roundup
Below we present a round up of the most recent housing market forecasts from two national groups representing major players in the housing market - the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) – and the forecast of a major forecasting firm Moody’s economy.com. All housing market forecasts discussed below were issued in February 2009. The National Association of Homebuilders predicts that sales of existing single-family units will increase by 1.6% in 2009 and by 14% in 2010. On the contrary sales of new single-family units are expected to drop from 479,000 in 2008 to 364,000 in 2009 (representing a 24% decrease) and then rise to 539,000 in 2010 (representing a 48% increase). The February 2009 forecast of the National Association of Realtors predicts that sales existing homes will be increasing in both 2009 and 2010 by 4.1% and 6.3%, respectively. Along these lines, NAR predicts that prices of existing homes will drop by 2.9% in 2009 but increase by 4.6% in 2010. Prices of new homes are predicted to decline by 1.7% in 2009 and rise by 4,8% in 2010. Moody's economy.com February 2009 report predicts that house prices will stabilize by the end of this year, but after they drop 11% from the fourth quarter of last year as measured by the national Case-Shiller house price index, bringing the total peak-to-trough decline of 36%. The report also predicts that by the end of this downturn, house prices will register double-digit declines from peak to trough in nearly 62% of the nation’s 381 metro areas, with about 10% of metro areas registering price decreases of over 30%.
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