According to the forecast, US industrial space demand, as measured by the occupied stock, is predicted to continue declining, registering a drop 40% larger than the one registered in the third quarter of 2009. In particular, the occupied industrial space stock in Q4 2009 is predicted to decline by 74.8 million square feet (negative net absorption), which is 39.5% higher than the drop of 54.6 million square feet that was registered in the third quarter.

With the predicted negative net absorption in Q4, the total decline in industrial space demand in 2009 will sum to 298.7 million square feet, which will be more than 5 times higher than the drop in demand in 2008, which amounted to 57.2 million square feet.

With the increasing supply-demand gap, the US industrial property vacancy rate is predicted to climb from 13.5% in Q3 2009 to 14.2% in Q4 2009, triggering further downward pressures on industrial space rents. Thus, the NAR/CBRE-EA industrial property forecast predicts that industrial rent declines will accelerate from -1.8% in Q3 2009 to -2.7% in Q4 2009, bringing the total industrial rent decline for 2009 to -10.8%.

The NAR/CBRE-EA US industrial property forecast predicts also that the market will continue to weaken in 2010 with an additional drop in demand of 140.5 million square feet and the completion of an additional 53.8 million square feet of new industrial space. As a result of these dynamics, the vacancy rate is predicted to rise further to 15.2% in 2010 and industrial rents to continue declining at the accelerating rate of -11.5%.

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