Is the recession over? According to the October 2009 survey of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE), which presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 44 professional forecasters, “The Great Recession is over”.
According to the results of the survey more than 80% of the economists surveyed expressed the believe that the US recession is over. However, they point out to a moderate recovery that will be slower than the ones experienced in the past after sharp GDP contractions.
The panel of forecasters surveyd by NABE in October 2009 expects US real GDP to increase by 2.9% in the second half of 2009 and the housing market to register substantial growth in 2010.
In the meantime, other US economic data point to real GDP growth in the third quarter. For example, industrial production increased during July and August of 2009, pushing up capacity utilization rates.
The major concerns of the economists surveyed by NABE, is the large increase in federal debt and unemployment, which is expected to remain at very high levels until 2010. In particular, the unemployment rate is expected to reach 10 percent in the first quarter of 2010 but decrease to 9.5% by the end of 2010.
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