NY City Hotel Forecast 2009In 2009, the Average Daily Rate (ADR) in New York City hotels is predicted to decrease by 11% while Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) is predicted to plunge 20%. In 2010, ADR is expected to drop 4% and RevPAR 6.5%. RevPAR is expected to fall considerably more than ADR in both 2009 and 2010 because the average hotel occupancy rate is predicted to be declining. In particular, HVS predicts that in 2009 the average hotel occupancy rate in New York City will plunge 8.5 percentage points to 76.1% from 84.6% in 2008. The average occupancy rate is expected to continue declining in 2010, but at a considerably lower rate. Specifically, the New York City hotel occupancy rate in 2010 is expected to average 74.2%, representing a drop of 1.9 percentage points from the predicted 2009 level. The severe drop in the occupancy rate in 2009 will be triggered by a drop in room demand at a time that room supply is expected to continue to rise. In particular, room demand in 2009 is predicted to drop by 2.1%, while room supply is expected to increase by 8.8%. In 2010, room demand is expected to increase by 2.3% but room supply is predicted to increase by 5.5% thus resulting in a further drop in hotel occupancies.
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