Office cap rates in May 2009 varied as much as 120 basis points across US regions, according to data published by Real Capital Analytics (RCA).
The highest office cap rates, averaging 8.0%, were registered in the Midwest, followed by the Southwest, where office cap rates averaged 7.7%.
The lowest rates were registered in the West, where office cap rates in May 2009 averaged 6.8%. Second lowest office cap rates were registered in the Northeast, where they averaged 6.9%. Office cap rates in May 2009 in the Mid-Atlantic and Southwest averaged 7.2% in both regions.
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Office cap rates at the national level are likely to continue rising in the second half of 2009 as NAR/TWR predict worsening of the national office market with negative absorption, rising vacancy rates, and declining rents.
In particular, NAR/TWR predict a negative absorption of about 50 million square feet in the second half of 2009. This negative absorption, in combination with 32 million square feet of completions of new office space, will push the vacancy rate up from 15.5% in the second quarter of 2009 to 17.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009. As a result of these developments, office rents are predicted to drop in the second half of 2009 by 3.2%.
NAR/TWR actually predict that the worsening of the office market will continue through 2010, with the vacancy rate shooting above 20% and over 110 million square feet of negative absorption.
In May 2009, there were also significant variations in average office property prices across US regions, according to data regarding transaction prices provided also by RCA. In particular, the highest by far office property prices were recorded in the Northeast where they averaged $476 per square foot. The lowest office property prices were recorded in the Midwest and Southwest, where they averaged $145 per square foot and $175 per square foot, respectively. Office property prices in the West averaged $265 per square foot
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