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Retail Vacancy Rates in the Second Quarter of 2009

Retail vacancy rates in the second quarter of 2009 hit as high as 18.8% in Detroit, according to recent estimates by REALTORS Commercial Alliance and REALTOR Research. There were markets, however, such as Honolulu and San Jose, with estimated vacancy rates that were as low as 5.8%.

The US retail market was hit hard in the first half of 2009 by increasing unemployment, declining household income and restrained spending, which resulted in reduced retail sales, reduced profits for retailers, retailer bankruptcies and increasing vacant retail space. According to the latest estimates by the Census Bureau, total retail trade sales for the June 2009 period were down 10% percent compared to June 2008.

The economic crisis has of course affected differently metropolitan markets across the US, depending on the speed and magnitude of the localized economic impact. This different impact is reflected in the very wide variation of vacancy rates across 48 major retail markets for which REALTORS Commercial Alliance and REALTOR Research has reported estimates for the second quarter of 2009.

Besides Honolulu and San Jose five more markets were reported by REALTORS Commercial Alliance and REALTOR Research as having a retail vacancy rate below 7% in the second quarter of 2009. These markets are San Francisco, Orange County, Salt Lake city and Long Island, and in theory have the lowest risk of registering rent declines, assuming that all other factors that affect retail rents are equal across markets.

The Los Angeles retail market had also a relatively low retail vacancy rate of 8.3%. The New York retail vacancy rate was higher at 11.3%, but was still below the reported national average of 12%. Chicago, with a retail vacancy rate of 13.4% was above the national average.

Besides Detroit, REALTORS Commercial Alliance and REALTOR Research reported six more markets as having a retail vacancy rate of 15% or above in the second quarter of 2009. These markets are Atlanta, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Dallas,Fort Worth, and Columbus, and in theory have the highest risk of registering rent declines, assuming that all other factors that affect retail rents are equal across markets.

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Multi-Period Lease Rate Growth Formula with Intertemporally Variable CPI Forecast
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