Path of Suburban Growth

Suburban growth is the main venue through which mature metropolitan areas expand. Anticipating the path of such growth can be very

Suburban downtowns are often found at suburban nodes of high accessibility, such as key intersections of radial arteries and circumferential highways. According to these authors, these suburban downtowns have further growth potential in the future with the addition of uses that will make them more comprehensive and/or specialized. They also foresee that the retail landscape will become more differentiated in terms of market niches because of increasing purchasing power and differentiation in consumer preferences. Hartshorn and Muller describe a five-stage model of suburban growth:

1) Bedroom community, which refers to the development of residential communities in the suburbs, motivated by the availability of cheap land and financing, as well as the location independence brought by the car and high-speed highways

2) The stage of independence, which refers to the development of suburban regional malls, as well as office and industrial parks, which brought jobs close to suburban communities, reducing or eliminating the dependence of suburban residents on central city employment

3) The stage of catalytic growth, during which housing and commercial development intensifies and becomes more diversified in terms of quality and price

4) The high-rise/high-technology stage, which was marked by the emergence of high-rise office towers housing the growing middle and upper-middle management functions and corporate headquarters, as well as the emergence of high-tech research and development activities, located in selected suburban corridors.

5) The mature town center stage, during which cultural, social, and recreational facilities are developed, completing the full spectrum of land uses found in mature urban areas.

Hartshorne and Muller’s five stages of suburban development suggest that identifying suburban growth patterns that are at the beginning of the independence stage can provide clues to identify residential and commercial sites most qualified to attract the

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next stage of development (catalytic growth), which should boost property values significantly. Suburban areas that are at the independence stage can be identified using as reference regional and super-regional malls under construction, as well as office and industrial parks under construction. Residential and commercial sites most qualified to accommodate the upcoming expansion of housing and commercial development, within the area of influence of these shopping malls and employment centers, should have significant value-increase potential.

Finally, Hartshorne and Muller’s prediction that suburban downtowns will be the focus of considerable growth in the coming decades suggests that commercial properties in these downtowns may have a significant value-increase potential.

References
Hartshorn, T. and P. Muller. 1992. “The Suburban Downtown and Urban Economic Development Today.” In Sources of Metropolitan Growth, eds E. Mills and J. McDonald, New Brunswick, NJ: Center for Urban Policy Research.

^{This is an excerpt from the book Profitable Real Estate Investing by Petros S. Sivitanides, Ph.D.}

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Anticipating the Path of Suburban Growth