US Housing Forecast, August 2009Somewhat smoother trends are predicted by the US housing forecast for median prices of new homes as these are anticipated to decline in the last two quarters of 2009 by 0.9% and 0.1%. Price declines are predicted to continue in the three months of 2010 at a quarterly rate of 2.4%. However, MBA predicts that median prices of new homes will be rising for the rest of 2010, with the second quarter registering a strong increase of 4.9% followed by very small increases of 0.6% and 0.1% in the twos subsequent quarters. On an annual basis, MBA predicts that median housing prices for existing homes will drop a total of 12.5% in 2009 but rise by 1.7% and 3.1% in 2010 and 2011, respectively. In a similar fashion, median prices of new homes are predicted to register an annual drop of 8.8% in 2009 but rise in 2010 and 2011 by 1.7% and 2.8%, respectively. In terms of home sales, the MBA US housing forecast predicts that sales of existing homes will continue rising steadily in the second half of 2009 and throughout the fourth quarter of 2011, with the strongest quarterly increase of 5.4% taking place in the third quarter of 2009. Sales of new homes are predicted to also continue rising steadily in the second half of 2009 and throughout the fourth quarter of 2011, with the strongest quarterly increase of 12.6% taking place also in the third quarter of 2009. On an annual basis, sales of existing homes are predicted to post an overall decline of 1.3% in 2009 but rise by 10.7% and 13.2% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, while sales of new homes are predicted to post an overall decline of 22.1% in 2009, but post strong increases of 20.9% and 27.4% in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
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